CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-23T21:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-23T21:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35906/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Faint, relatively slow CME seen to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, associated with small dimming signature on the Earth-facing disk near AR13932 to south starting around 2024-12-23T20:39Z best seen in GOES SUVI 284. No clear arrival signature in solar wind at L1: there might be a weak arrival around ~2024-12-28T15:40Z, with separation of magnetic field components and a drop in density but it is inconclusive.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-28T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35908/1 Model Inputs: 2024-12-23T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-7.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=268.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-12-24T10:09Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-28T04:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-28T04:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-28T08:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241224_100900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 80.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-24T19:10Z
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